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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.