A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
